From January to February 2022, my country's total social logistics volume was 51.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% based on comparable prices. The growth rate of total social logistics continued the rebound trend since the fourth quarter of the previous year, and was significantly higher than the pre-epidemic level in 2019. , showing that the overall logistics demand is still on the rebound channel, and logistics operations have started smoothly.
From a structural perspective, internally, the effects of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption continue to appear, and industrial and consumer logistics demand maintains rapid growth; externally, the global economic cycle has not yet returned to normal levels, and import logistics demand continues to decline.
Industrial logistics demand is growing rapidly and new momentum continues to increase
After the holiday, enterprises resumed work and production in an orderly manner, and industrial logistics demand maintained rapid growth. From January to February, the total volume of industrial product logistics increased by 7.5% year-on-year, 1.4 percentage points faster than the two-year average growth rate from 2020 to 2021.
From a structural perspective, new kinetic energy continues to exert force and its role in supporting industrial logistics demand has increased. High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing continued to grow rapidly. From January to February, the total logistics volume of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increased by 14.4% and 9.6% respectively year-on-year. The growth rates accelerated by 2.3% and 3.4% respectively from December last year. percentage points.
From an industry perspective, computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and instrumentation manufacturing all achieved double-digit growth, and the growth rates all accelerated month-on-month. In addition, the automobile manufacturing industry grew by 7.2% year-on-year, 4.4 percentage points faster than December last year. In particular, the output of new energy vehicles increased by 150.5% year-on-year, continuing to grow rapidly based on the doubled growth of the previous year.
The recovery of logistics demand for people's livelihood consumption is accelerating, and new business formats continue to develop
From January to February, driven by online promotion factors such as the "Online New Year Shopping Festival", the demand for manufacturing logistics of consumer goods on the production side accelerated, and the demand for logistics such as e-commerce online shopping on the sales side continued to be popular. From the production side, the consumer goods manufacturing industry has accelerated its recovery. From January to February, the logistics demand of the consumer goods manufacturing industry increased by 9.7% year-on-year, 5.2 percentage points faster than the two-year average growth rate from 2020 to 2021.
From the sales side, the boosting effect of new business formats is still obvious. From January to February, the total logistics volume of units and residents increased by 10.5% year-on-year. Among them, online retail sales of physical goods increased by 12.3% year-on-year. The e-commerce logistics index showed that in the first two months, e-commerce logistics increased by 10.5% year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate of commercial logistics business volume exceeded 25%, and the growth rate of rural business volume was also close to 25%, maintaining a rapid growth trend.
Import prices fall, logistics demand continues to fall
Since the fourth quarter of last year, international commodity prices have continued to rise, which has had a certain impact on my country's related imports. Data show that from January to February, import logistics volume fell by 3.5% year-on-year, declining for five consecutive months. However, it should also be noted that the decline in import logistics volume has narrowed month-on-month this year. As my country's economy and supply chain gradually recover in the future, the scale of imports will also expand.
From the perspective of import structure, bulk commodities have been affected by factors such as sharp price increases. The import volumes of crude oil, coal and lignite, and steel have all declined, with cumulative year-on-year decreases of 4.9%, 14.0%, and 7.9% respectively; among agricultural products, meat imports Demand maintained a downward trend, down 33% year-on-year.
The scale of the logistics market is expanding and industry integration is accelerating
The scale of the logistics market continues to expand, and industry integration is accelerating. Since 2021, the logistics industry market has continued to expand, and the total revenue growth rate of the logistics industry has also maintained a relatively high level. From January to February, the total revenue of the logistics industry was 1.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, which was faster than the level in 2019 before the epidemic.
As new driving forces develop and grow, the logistics demand structure continues to change, placing higher demands on logistics services. Especially since the epidemic, the transformation and upgrading of the logistics industry has accelerated significantly, and the logistics market has entered a period of accelerated integration. The revenue share of my country's top 50 logistics companies has risen to the highest level in recent years, and the overall industry concentration has steadily increased. In subdivisions such as express delivery, leading companies have further increased industry concentration through mergers and reorganizations. According to data from the State Post Bureau, the express and parcel service brand concentration index CR8 from January to February was 85.3, which was a significant increase compared with the whole year of 2021 and the same period.
The transportation business is growing rapidly and logistics companies are operating more efficiently. In terms of physical volume, the freight volume of the whole society increased by 15.5% year-on-year in February, of which road freight volume increased by 21.1%. From the perspective of corporate business, the total business volume index rose instead of falling in February, with the index rising 0.1 percentage points from the previous month to 51.2%. Since February, driven by factors such as the resumption of work and production, the logistics industry's physical volume and corporate business volume have maintained a good growth momentum. At the same time, logistics has maintained relatively efficient operating efficiency. The capital turnover index and equipment utilization index in the logistics industry prosperity index in February both rebounded by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month and remained above 50% for six consecutive months, reflecting the initiative of enterprises to improve the efficiency of capital use and improve the efficiency of logistics equipment operations, which is good for the beginning of the year. The tight balance between personnel supply and demand for two months has played a certain regulatory role.
Taken together, the macro-economy continued to recover in the first two months of this year, and the growth rate of logistics demand remained at a good level. From the perspective of market demand and expectations, the new order index and business activity expectation index in the logistics industry prosperity index were 50.2% and 59.7% respectively, both higher than last month. Among them, the business activity expectation index has been running in the high prosperity range for two consecutive months. It shows that logistics companies have good expectations for the development of the industry.
However, we must also note that since March, unstable and uncertain factors have increased, and it has become more difficult for the logistics industry to ensure the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain.
From the perspective of the external environment, the impact of the epidemic is still continuing in some areas, and the development levels of various industries and regions are uneven. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts are still continuing, which may bring about poor cross-border logistics channels in the European direction, tight transportation capacity, rising freight rates, and increased pressure to ensure supply and stable prices of key commodities due to supply chain impacts. This needs to be tracked, analyzed, and paid close attention to.
From the perspective of market vitality, the operating costs of logistics companies are rising, and the pressure of rising raw material and labor costs has increased. The foundation for the overall recovery of the industry needs to be further solidified:
First, the linkage between logistics service prices and costs is weak. Although the cost of raw materials such as oil prices continues to rise, the price of logistics services has not increased significantly. In the logistics industry prosperity index in February, the service price index fell by 0.2 percentage points instead of rising. Road logistics and coastal bulk freight prices fell month-on-month, which shows that under the current background of homogeneous competition in freight services, the bargaining power of the industry is low, and costs and There is a certain lag in the price linkage of logistics services.
Second, industry profitability is further under pressure. Key survey data show that from January to February, the logistics business costs of key logistics enterprises increased by 17.3% year-on-year. The cost per 100 yuan of operating income was 90.7 yuan, an increase of 1% year-on-year, and was significantly higher than the average level of industrial enterprises above designated size. Among them, affected by factors such as rising commodity prices and structural labor shortages, fuel costs and labor costs have increased by more than double digits respectively. From the perspective of profitability, nearly 30% of key logistics companies suffered losses from January to February, a year-on-year increase of 2.5 percentage points, indicating that logistics companies' operating pressure has increased, leading to further compression of profit margins. The overall revenue profit margin was around 3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, the damage to small, medium and micro logistics companies is more obvious. The revenue profit margin of small and micro logistics companies is less than 3%, which is lower than the same period last year. There is a large gap with large and medium-sized enterprises.